The population of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area was approximately 7.7 million in 2021
of Bay Area residents lived in the three most populous cities (San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland) in 2021
Between 2020 and 2021, the total population in the Bay Area decreased by 46k, the first annual decrease in decades
Introduction
Where do we live?
In 2021, over 7.7 million people lived in the nine-county, 7,000-square-mile Bay Area region. Residents are spread throughout the 101 cities and in various unincorporated communities, the size and density of which vary widely.
Regional Performance
Over the long term, regional population growth has been strong. However, as of the early 2020s that trend is showing signs of reversing.
Regional population dynamics are driven by multiple forces, including the prevalence of job opportunities and overall affordability, including the availability of housing opportunities at all income levels. Since 1970, the Bay Area’s population has grown by over 60%, adding about 3 million new residents.
In the 2010s, the Bay Area kept growing, thanks to a strong economy. But by the end of that decade, growth started to slow, and after 2020—when the COVID-19 pandemic hit—the population actually began to shrink. Since 2020, the region has lost about 177,000 people, or around 2% of its population. In fact, 2021, 2022, and 2024 (but not 2023) were the first years the Bay Area’s population dropped in more than 50 years.
The population of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area increased by 64% between 1970 and 2024
As of 2024, regional population is down 2% from its peak of 7.76 million in early 2020
Historical Trend for Population
Regional Distribution
The distribution of Bay Area residents between center cities and suburban communities has been relatively stable for over a decade.
Vital Signs groups jurisdictions in the Bay Area based on their proximity to the Bay, with the three largest cities – San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland – grouped separately as the “Big Three.” Cities that ring the Bay are referred to as “Bayside” cities, while the cities beyond this core are classified descriptively as “Inland, Delta and Coastal.” The remainder of Bay Area lands – by far the largest segment in terms of acreage – is classified as “Unincorporated.”
Up until 1960, growth was somewhat concentrated in the ring of cities close to San Francisco Bay. Since 1960, the share of residents living in inland, delta and coastal cities farther from the Bay increased from 12% in 1970 to 25% in 2021. Much of this growth occurred in Contra Costa, Alameda, Sonoma and Solano counties. Since 2007, the distribution of residents in the Bay Area has remained relatively constant with 30% of residents living in the Big Three, 35% living in the Bayside cities, 10% living in Inland, Delta, and Coastal cities, and 10% living in Unincorporated areas. This split has held relatively constant even amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.
In 2021, the largest Bay Area county by population was Santa Clara County at approximately 1.9 million residents
In 2021, the smallest Bay Area county by population was Napa County at approximately 140,000 residents
Historical Trend for Population Shares by Geographical Area
Local Focus
Some Priority Development Areas are already rapidly developing, while others have seen limited growth in recent decades.
Priority Development Areas (PDAs) are locally designated areas with frequent transit service. Examining neighborhoods now identified as PDAs reveals historical population trends and allows us to track where growth is occurring. The population growth of PDAs in the past 10 years between 2011 and 2021 varies depending on location.
Some PDAs have experienced significant positive growth while others have experienced negative growth. For example, the Treasure Island & Yerba Buena Island PDA in San Francisco grew from a few dozen residents in 2011 to over 1,400 residents in in 2021. The Warm Springs Innovation District Transit PDA in Fremont grew from just under 200 residents in 2011 to over 1,100 residents in 2021. On the other hand, the population of City Place in Santa Clara declined from over 1,000 in 2011 to less than 600 in 2021. However, this location in particular is expected to grow significantly over the next several years as the large mixed-used development known as Related Santa Clara comes online.
The Treasure Island & Yerba Buena Island Priority Development Area in San Francisco grew from a few dozen residents in 2011 to over 1,400 residents in in 2021
Population Density and Change for Priority Development Areas and Census Tracts (2021)
Sources & Methodology
All historical data reported for Census geographies (metropolitan areas, county, city and tract) use current legal boundaries and names. A Priority Development Area (PDA) is a locally-designated area with frequent transit service, where a jurisdiction has decided to concentrate most of its housing and jobs growth for development in the foreseeable future. PDA boundaries are current as of December 2022.
Population estimates for Bay Area counties and cities are from the California Department of Finance, which are as of January 1st of each year. Population estimates for non-Bay Area regions are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Decennial Census years reflect population as of April 1st of each year whereas population estimates for intercensal estimates are as of July 1st of each year. Population estimates for Bay Area tracts are from the decennial Census (1970-2020) and the American Community Survey (2011-2021 5-year rolling average). Estimates of population density for tracts use gross acres as the denominator.
Population estimates for Bay Area tracts and PDAs are from the decennial Census (1970-2020) and the American Community Survey (2011-2021 5-year rolling average). Population estimates for PDAs are allocated from tract-level Census population counts using an area ratio. For example, if a quarter of a Census tract lies with in a PDA, a quarter of its population will be allocated to that PDA. Estimates of population density for PDAs use gross acres as the denominator. Note that the population densities between PDAs reported in previous iterations of Vital Signs are mostly not comparable due to minor differences and an updated set of PDAs (previous iterations reported Plan Bay Area 2040 PDAs, whereas current iterations report Plan Bay Area 2050 PDAs).
The following is a list of cities and towns by geographical area:
Big Three: San Jose, San Francisco, Oakland
Bayside: Alameda, Albany, Atherton, Belmont, Belvedere, Berkeley, Brisbane, Burlingame, Campbell, Colma, Corte Madera, Cupertino, Daly City, East Palo Alto, El Cerrito, Emeryville, Fairfax, Foster City, Fremont, Hayward, Hercules, Hillsborough, Larkspur, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Los Gatos, Menlo Park, Mill Valley, Millbrae, Milpitas, Monte Sereno, Mountain View, Newark, Pacifica, Palo Alto, Piedmont, Pinole, Portola Valley, Redwood City, Richmond, Ross, San Anselmo, San Bruno, San Carlos, San Leandro, San Mateo, San Pablo, San Rafael, Santa Clara, Saratoga, Sausalito, South San Francisco, Sunnyvale, Tiburon, Union City, Vallejo, Woodside
Inland, Delta and Coastal: American Canyon, Antioch, Benicia, Brentwood, Calistoga, Clayton, Cloverdale, Concord, Cotati, Danville, Dixon, Dublin, Fairfield, Gilroy, Half Moon Bay, Healdsburg, Lafayette, Livermore, Martinez, Moraga, Morgan Hill, Napa, Novato, Oakley, Orinda, Petaluma, Pittsburg, Pleasant Hill, Pleasanton, Rio Vista, Rohnert Park, San Ramon, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, Sonoma, St. Helena, Suisun City, Vacaville, Walnut Creek, Windsor, Yountville
Unincorporated: all unincorporated towns
California Department of Finance: Population and Housing Estimates
Table E-6: County Population Estimates (1960-1970)
Table E-4: Population Estimates for Counties and State (1970-2021)
Table E-8: Historical Population and Housing Estimates (1990-2010)
Table E-5: Population and Housing Estimates (2010-2021)
Bay Area Jurisdiction Centroids (2020)
Computed using 2020 US Census TIGER boundaries
U.S. Census Bureau: Decennial Census Population Estimates- via Longitudinal Tract Database Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences, Brown University
1970-2020
U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey (5-year rolling average; tract)
2011-2021
Form B01003
Priority Development Areas (Plan Bay Area 2050)